Public learning proof

Learning Proof

A first-class proof chain showing whether the V2 engine is actually improving over time, whether the aggregate still matches ledger truth, and whether calibration and challenger workflows are healthy enough to support public claims.

Generated 23/09/2026, 05:04:03

HEALTHY

Predictions Analysed

115K+

114,771 exact surfaced forecasts

Settled Forecasts

110,688

Exact settled surfaced V2 ledger

Model Brier

0.2089

Lower is better

Alpha

-0.0031

Market Brier minus model Brier

ROI

-1.43%

Flat-stake surfaced ROI

Calibration Freshness

0.8h

SLA: 24h

Aggregate Reconciliation

Healthy

Last reconciled 23/09/2026, 05:05:38

Max drift 0.000000

Calibration SLA

Within SLA

Last updated 23/09/2026, 04:14:24

Challenger Activity

Active

Last activity 21/09/2026, 05:04:50

Pending promotions: 0 · recent decisions: 25

Rolling Walk-Forward Evidence

Shareable audit of persisted pre-match V2 forecasts. Rows are grouped by forecast-created week, and a cohort is only evaluated once that market has at least 100 prior surfaced settled forecasts. Forecast rows are not the same as executed bets: many markets can come from one fixture. This is deliberately separate from the tiny scheduled weekly comparison jobs.

Generated 23/09/2026, 05:06:07

Scope: 365d, surfaced-only, engine opportunities-engine-v2, cohort field createdAt, settled-outcome field settledAt. This validates stored forecasts against the market Brier baseline; it is not a claim that every row was executable at unlimited stake size.

Evaluated Holdout

110,190

9,694 fixtures, 110,688 eligible rows

Cohorts

1 warm-up cohorts skipped

Alpha vs Market

-0.0031

Market Brier minus model Brier

Flat ROI

-1.45%

-1597.95u over holdout rows

CLV Check

-1.26%

25.3% hit, 60,260 samples

Market	Eligible	Holdout	Fixtures	Cohorts	Alpha	ROI	Model Brier	Market Brier	Avg CLV	Range
All Markets	110,688	110,190	9,694	25	-0.0031	-1.45%	0.2089	0.2058	-1.26%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Asian Handicap	30,164	27,508	6,730	24	-0.0081	-7.36%	0.2231	0.2150	-1.21%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Goals Over/Under	19,993	19,870	5,803	25	-0.0037	-1.28%	0.1938	0.1901	-1.60%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Half Goals	15,751	13,685	5,606	24	+0.0221	+2.81%	0.2077	0.2298	+0.37%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Match Winner	14,502	13,305	5,863	24	-0.0017	+2.18%	0.2000	0.1983	-1.37%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Double Chance	8,003	6,696	3,327	24	-0.0063	-2.45%	0.2313	0.2250	-0.76%	27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Corners	6,398	4,406	1,646	18	-0.0105	-1.91%	0.2178	0.2073	n/a	28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
BTTS	4,192	3,422	2,135	24	-0.0045	-7.07%	0.2441	0.2396	-0.70%	28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Team Goals	3,083	2,857	846	16	+0.0195	+64.12%	0.2194	0.2389	-1.12%	06/05/2026 to 21/09/2026
Correct Score	3,241	2,432	1,187	4	-0.0019	-25.15%	0.0525	0.0506	n/a	29/03/2026 to 08/05/2026
Clean Sheet	2,167	2,000	1,926	24	-0.0063	-7.65%	0.2152	0.2089	n/a	28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026
Even/Odd Goals	2,247	1,037	960	21	-0.0026	-5.58%	0.2524	0.2498	+0.24%	27/03/2026 to 21/09/2026
HT/FT	609	309	261	3	-0.0031	-16.89%	0.1172	0.1141	n/a	03/04/2026 to 05/05/2026

Win to Nil evidence quarantined

Old Win to Nil rows were recomputed with strict settlement rules, then excluded from headline proof because the original odds feed mapped stale market IDs into Win to Nil. These rows remain visible here as an audit trail, but they do not count toward public ROI, Brier, alpha, CLV, or market-family proof.

Quarantined Rows

6,459

6,801 historical Win to Nil rows

Active Proof Rows

0 settled rows currently counting

Removed ROI

+846.47%

Audit-only; +57568.60u is excluded

Strict Audit ROI

+1007.87%

5,957 recomputable rows, still excluded

Dominant Bad Pattern

31.27

Win to Nil - Home / No / key=no / side=home

Reason: win_to_nil_market_id_contamination_2026_04_14. Last quarantine write: 04/07/2026, 13:58:27. Latest captured row: 11/04/2026, 17:43:06. Latest active row: n/a. Generated 23/09/2026, 06:09:29.

Match	Stored Bet	Book	Captured	Score	Stored	Strict	Unit
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche La Liga	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 41.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement	bet365	03/04/2026, 14:21:34	1-0	won	lost	-1.00u
Grenoble Foot 38 vs Clermont Ligue 2	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 29.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement	bet365	03/04/2026, 14:21:24	2-2	lost	won	+28.00u
Grenoble Foot 38 vs Clermont Ligue 2	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 29.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement	bet365	03/04/2026, 14:18:32	2-2	lost	won	+28.00u
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Premier League	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds	bet365	11/04/2026, 14:55:36	4-1	won	won	+40.00u
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol La Liga	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds	bet365	11/04/2026, 14:05:01	1-0	lost	lost	-1.00u
Cambridge United vs Notts County League Two	Win to Nil - Home / No @ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds	bet365	11/04/2026, 13:46:51	4-0	lost	lost	-1.00u

Proof Chain Windows

Exact surfaced settled windows comparing older periods against recent behavior.

Window	Sample	Brier	Market Brier	Alpha	ROI	Avg CLV	CLV Hit
Older 7d	7,043	0.2134	0.2130	-0.0003	-0.16%	-0.93	23.4%
Recent 7d	5,535	0.2087	0.2072	-0.0015	-7.55%	-0.73	24.2%
Older 30d	11,121	0.2184	0.2214	+0.0029	6.21%	-0.99	28.0%
Recent 30d	24,183	0.2138	0.2139	+0.0001	0.01%	-0.90	22.5%

7-Day Improvement

Older 7d vs recent 7d, with 95% confidence intervals on the change.

Brier Improvement

+0.0047

95% CI -0.0007 to 0.0102

Directional only · improved

Alpha Improvement

0.0000

95% CI 0.0000 to 0.0000

Directional only · worsened

ROI Improvement

-7.40pp

95% CI -12.23 to -2.57pp

Statistically clear · worsened

Avg CLV Improvement

+0.19%

95% CI -0.03 to 0.42%

Directional only · improved

CLV Hit Improvement

+0.83pp

95% CI -0.71 to 2.36pp

Directional only · improved

30-Day Improvement

Older 30d vs recent 30d for a broader view of whether the learning story survives over longer horizons.

Brier Improvement

+0.0046

95% CI 0.0012 to 0.0081

Statistically clear · improved

Alpha Improvement

0.0000

95% CI 0.0000 to 0.0000

Statistically clear · worsened

ROI Improvement

-6.20pp

95% CI -9.50 to -2.89pp

Statistically clear · worsened

Avg CLV Improvement

+0.09%

95% CI -0.10 to 0.28%

Directional only · improved

CLV Hit Improvement

-5.41pp

95% CI -6.44 to -4.38pp

Statistically clear · worsened

Market

Eligible

Holdout

Fixtures

Cohorts

Alpha

ROI

Model Brier

Market Brier

Avg CLV

Range

All Markets

110,688

110,190

9,694

-0.0031

-1.45%

0.2089

0.2058

-1.26%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Asian Handicap

30,164

27,508

6,730

-0.0081

-7.36%

0.2231

0.2150

-1.21%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Goals Over/Under

19,993

19,870

5,803

-0.0037

-1.28%

0.1938

0.1901

-1.60%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Half Goals

15,751

13,685

5,606

+0.0221

+2.81%

0.2077

0.2298

+0.37%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Match Winner

14,502

13,305

5,863

-0.0017

+2.18%

0.2000

0.1983

-1.37%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Double Chance

8,003

6,696

3,327

-0.0063

-2.45%

0.2313

0.2250

-0.76%

27/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Corners

6,398

4,406

1,646

-0.0105

-1.91%

0.2178

0.2073

n/a

28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

BTTS

4,192

3,422

2,135

-0.0045

-7.07%

0.2441

0.2396

-0.70%

28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Team Goals

3,083

2,857

846

+0.0195

+64.12%

0.2194

0.2389

-1.12%

06/05/2026 to 21/09/2026

Correct Score

3,241

2,432

1,187

-0.0019

-25.15%

0.0525

0.0506

n/a

29/03/2026 to 08/05/2026

Clean Sheet

2,167

2,000

1,926

-0.0063

-7.65%

0.2152

0.2089

n/a

28/03/2026 to 22/09/2026

Even/Odd Goals

2,247

1,037

960

-0.0026

-5.58%

0.2524

0.2498

+0.24%

27/03/2026 to 21/09/2026

HT/FT

609

309

261

-0.0031

-16.89%

0.1172

0.1141

n/a

03/04/2026 to 05/05/2026

Match

Stored Bet

Book

Captured

Score

Stored

Strict

Unit

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

La Liga

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 41.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement

bet365

03/04/2026, 14:21:34

1-0

won

lost

-1.00u

Grenoble Foot 38 vs Clermont

Ligue 2

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 29.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement

bet365

03/04/2026, 14:21:24

2-2

lost

won

+28.00u

Grenoble Foot 38 vs Clermont

Ligue 2

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 29.00 - Stored outcome differed from strict Win to Nil settlement

bet365

03/04/2026, 14:18:32

2-2

lost

won

+28.00u

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley

Premier League

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds

bet365

11/04/2026, 14:55:36

4-1

won

+40.00u

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

La Liga

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds

bet365

11/04/2026, 14:05:01

1-0

lost

-1.00u

Cambridge United vs Notts County

League Two

Win to Nil - Home / No

@ 41.00 - Highest contaminated stored odds

bet365

11/04/2026, 13:46:51

4-0

lost

-1.00u

Window

Sample

Brier

Market Brier

Alpha

ROI

Avg CLV

CLV Hit

Older 7d

7,043

0.2134

0.2130

-0.0003

-0.16%

-0.93

23.4%

Recent 7d

5,535

0.2087

0.2072

-0.0015

-7.55%

-0.73

24.2%

Older 30d

11,121

0.2184

0.2214

+0.0029

6.21%

-0.99

28.0%

Recent 30d

24,183

0.2138

0.2139

+0.0001

0.01%

-0.90

22.5%